MT. VERNON, Mo. – Missouri’s GOP primary is one week away and the gubernatorial race is anything but decided.
New polling from OnMessage Inc. finds Catherine Hanaway at the top of the pack.
The former federal prosecutor captured 25% of the some 500 republican voters surveyed, compared to 23% for John Brunner, 21% for Eric Greitens and Lieutenant Governor, Peter Kinder, with 19%. The margin for error was just over four-percent.
Voters don’t have to look for to find conflicting polling numbers, but most show a difference less than seven points between first and fourth place.
“Every moment of every day we are either somewhere talking to people,” says Hanaway, while at a campaign stop in Mt. Vernon, “or we are in the car getting there.”
Hanaway says what she’s seen on the campaign trail recently reflects the new numbers from OnMessage Inc.
“We’re seeing more people coming into the campaign offices,” she says, “more and more people making online donations.”
“Our surveys don’t lead me to the conclusion that I could definitely say one [GOP candidate] is likely to win,” says OnMessage co-founder, Wes Anderson. “But I can look at the differences in the movement among the GOP primary voters.”
Anderson says he gives the current edge to Hanaway because she has gained the most ground since the organization’s last poll two weeks ago.
Hanaway is also gaining traction with conservatives, which make up half of the GOP electorate in Missouri.
“She has picked up stream in both the St. Louis media market and the Kansas City media market,” Anderson says. “The other candidates seem to be fighting over much of the rest of the state.”
“What is going to decide this election, as close as it is, is who shows up on election day,” says Hanaway.